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Market
Update Conference Call - March 11, 2009
- Comments from Lowell Miller on the Dividend Stability
of the Portfolio (10:34)
- Comments from Lowell Miller on Recent Weakness in the
Utilities Sector (1:45)
Transcript
of call:
Hi. Good Morning. Thanks for joining us. Obviously these
are unusual times and while an integral part of our approach
involves high-yield with dividend growth, right now the
safety of the existing yield is of paramount importance.
We are getting dividend growth, but we are doing a lot more
work on ensuring the safety of the dividend yield. What
unusual times really means is that companies that had a
normal course of business in the past would be good credits
and would roll over their financing when financing was due
- this is a big question mark today. Other question marks
include the revenue sources, etc.
So our analysis has become much more intensively focused
on the balance sheets than ever before. We always paid attention
to it, but it never really had the import for any company,
whether financial or utility, than it has today. So we have
sort of a list of points - that are kind of our checklist
- which we are going through. The first is, really the business
concept, and basically this is a focus today on companies
with recurring revenues. It has always been our focus, but
even more so than it ever was and we really - at this point
in time - we are really not prepared to take on any kind
of cyclical exposure. That may happen later, but not right
now.
We want companies that have made a verbal commitment to
dividends; that have demonstrated their verbal commitment
by not only paying them but reaffirming them and also growing
them. So first is the concept. Is it the kind of company
that can share prosperity and earnings and cash flow with
investors? Is it a company that is committed to doing so?
And does it have the ability? This goes back again to cash
flow, recurring dividends, recurring streams of income,
from which it can pay dividends. It also needs - in order
to pay dividends - it needs the ability to cover costs.
So we're looking at - for minimal financial strength an
interest coverage ratio of 2 to 1 and that would really
only be for the most reliable recurring kinds cash flow
stream such as utilities or those kinds of business that
are at the top of the food chain for recurrence. But, generally,
we would prefer to see at least a 4 or 5 to 1 coverage of
interest, so that we can be sure that there is basically
money left over for us as shareholders. We want to know
also about other demands on dividend cash - and here in
the current environment the other demands on what would
otherwise be dividend cash is the desire or need of companies
to horde cash on the possibility that they will have to
do new financing on their financials, or the possibility
that the financing would be hard to get or expensive if
they are other kinds of companies. So that the primary demand
on what would otherwise be dividend cash. So there again,
it's a matter of not only analyzing the earning stream and
operational business which itself is stressed, but also
analyzing the balance sheet.
It tends to be that utilities would not be stressed at
up to about roughly 50 percent debt in their capital structure.
With other companies we are looking for much less if not
none - 20 to 30 percent debt or none. There is also a spirit
abroad in which it has become more permissible for companies
to cut or reduce their dividends in the interest of hording
or the interest of safety, so that if a company is an a
business where other companies have been reducing their
dividends, even if this company might not need to, they
may feel that there is an extra measure of safety or an
extra measure of security in doing so. And the REITS are
a perfect example, there are plenty of REITS that are coming
in with fine funds from operations and operating income
as well, but across the board in the REITSs space companies
are deciding to pay stock instead of cash and this is really
not adequate.
We have used companies with stock dividends in the past
and it's not necessarily a bad thing depending on how it's
coming to the investor, but when they switch from cash to
stock it's really just dilutive. So when we find ourselves
looking at REITs - and just being very leery of a kind of
prophylactic decision on their part to go with a stock dividend
rather than a cash dividend, which we would not want, even
though there are quite a number of specialty REITs which
have not as yet, any how, had any kind of a dent in their
cash flow. We are very leery of companies that emphasis
how much liquidity they have or how big their revolvers
are - we want to say that in this case bigger is not better.
And the last time we heard these kinds of phrases about
how much liquidity we have or how big our revolver is was
on the verge of the tech crash. Probably most of you will
remember all the tech companies coming out and saying what
great access they had to liquidity, which is basically saying
we've got a lot of room on our credit card - and to us,
that's not really sound business.
We also need today to analyze customers much more than
before - customers of businesses. First of all, they have
to able to pay. Frequently, they have to be able to get
credit in order to pay. So not only are businesses the issue,
but what about the customers of the businesses? This is
a kind of analysis that really was not that important in
the past. You just assumed that a business that had customers
with, say, big ticket items, for example, that needed to
finance them - well if they made the sale, they get the
financing and they make the payments. It's really not the
same any more. That's another issue that we're looking at.
Some additional issues include the impact of government
programs - obviously, various kinds of support for stimulus.
All this is extremely important. For example, banks that
take TARP can't raise their dividends without permission
and most of them have either caught or it seems that they
are being pressured to cut their dividends, which makes
sense, because otherwise they are just taking taxpayer money
and putting it out as dividends. It really not appropriate,
in our view.
There are other kinds of things going on that could affect
a company's ability to pay such as the price trends of commodities,
consumer shifts, are they using more generics rather than
branded products. Basically we're looking at anything that
can affect revenues because that's what pays the dividends.
A few companies have cash hordes from past prosperity, but
we are really not that interested in being paid from accumulated
assets. We really want to be paid from current cash flow.
Basically, to summarize, unless there are special circumstances,
and there are some stocks that have special circumstances,
we want the company to have low debt, easy ability to service
the debt, easy ability to refinance, customers that don't
need to finance or customers that can do so easily, for
example, if their customer is the government, high level
of recurring revenues, cash flow that amply covers interest
and all other kinds of fixed expenses, as well as the dividends,
a verbal and an active commitment to dividends from the
company. A recent dividend increase gets a big star - and
it always got a star on our system, but it gets a much bigger
star than ever before because these are really the companies
that can afford it and have made the commitment, and we
think are going to be the durable investments going forward
in an environment which may be rather soft for years. That's
kind of our essential look at this.
Just one other thing that I would like to touch upon is
the underlying importance in our strategy of continuing
high yield and the ability of investors to spend the yield,
if they need it, but in a way, even more important, the
ability of investors to take that yield and reinvest it.
There has been a lot of material in the press and from strategist
from various warehouse firms showing that really over the
long term there is not that much gain from stocks - at least
stocks represented by large cap industries - that the real
gains over the long term come from dividends and the reinvestment
dividends - as you add more and more shares from the cash
flow. I know it's not that easy to take a long term view
right now when it seems like the sky is falling, but this
really still needs to be - I think the philosophical core
of investing. And this is the prime time where this cash
flow from dividends can be reinvested in stocks at low prices.
The dividend cash flow is kind of an automatic dollar cost
averaging process. You don't necessarily see it in your
returns each week, and you don't necessarily even see the
better dividend paying stocks lead the market, each week
or each month or each quarter, but over the long-term is
sort of an inexorable process and I think it's important
not to loose sight of it.
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